Quote of the Week – “If by the freedom of the press had been understood merely the freedom of discussing the propriety of public measures and political views, allow us to have as a lot of it as you please: But when it means the freedom of affronting, calumniating and defaming each other, I, personally, personal myself keen to half with my share of it.” —Benjamin Franklin (1789)
Variety of the Week: UP 24%
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Challenge (SEPP)
Local weather Mannequin Points – Greenhouse Feedbacks: Previous to the 1979 Charney Report, quite a few laboratory experiments established doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) would trigger a modest enhance in international temperatures, nothing of nice concern. The Charney Report states that advocates of world local weather fashions, primarily NASA-GISS and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton advocated constructive suggestions, primarily from water vapor from the oceans would end in a far better warming, which was estimated to be 3º C plus or minus 1.5º C. The final paragraph of the report, Part Four – Fashions and Their Validity states:
“We conclude that the predictions of CO2 -induced local weather modifications made with the varied fashions examined are mainly constant and mutually supporting. The variations in mannequin outcomes are comparatively small and could also be accounted for by variations in mannequin traits and simplifying assumptions. After all, we will by no means ensure that some badly estimated or completely neglected impact could not vitiate our conclusions. We are able to solely say that now we have not been capable of finding such results. If the CO2 focus of the ambiance is certainly doubled and stays so lengthy sufficient for the ambiance and the intermediate layers of the ocean to realize approximate thermal equilibrium, our greatest estimate is that modifications in international temperature of the order of three° C will happen and that these might be accompanied by important modifications in regional climatic patterns.”
The conclusions of the Charney Report had been primarily based on the consistency of the worldwide local weather fashions and weren’t verified by experiments or observations. The conclusions of the Charney Report have been retained by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) and its followers such because the US World Change Analysis Program (USGCRP) for forty years. However they’ve offered little investigation of the feedbacks, notably what is going on within the ambiance. Key questions stay: Do the constructive feedbacks exist and to what extent?
Writing in Watts Up With That (WUWT), Patrick Frank introduced the publication of his paper “Propagation of Error and the Reliability of World Air Temperature Projections” in Frontiers in Earth Science: Atmospheric Science, after six years of attempting. Frank’s private experiences give an concept of the problem of publishing a paper that questions the local weather orthodoxy. His feedback are biting, together with the view that many “consultants” within the institution confuse false precision with accuracy in estimates. An instance of false precision is when NASA-GISS made estimates of common floor temperature to Four one-hundreds of a level F, although measuring gadgets could also be no extra correct than plus or minus 2 levels F.
In response to Frank, “the paper demonstrates that local weather fashions haven’t any predictive worth.” One could agree with the assertion that fashions have little or no predictive worth with out agreeing with the declare that Frank’s paper demonstrates this. Once more, one wants to understand that although fashions agree with each other, all could also be incorrect. [Note that the model of the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences is an outlier, making projections of atmospheric temperature trends far below the other models and close to observed temperature trends.]
In posts on September 11 and 12, Roy Spencer articulates his issues with the Frank paper, the second submit following an change with Frank. Spencer states that the fashions usually are not compelled to steadiness the worldwide power funds at each step, as Frank implies, however every mannequin solely as soon as, throughout management runs. The 20 plus fashions have all kinds of errors. Spencer writes:
…” but all of them mainly behave the identical of their temperature projections for a similar (1) local weather sensitivity and (2) charge of ocean warmth uptake in response to anthropogenic greenhouse fuel emissions.”
“Thus, the fashions themselves show that their international warming forecasts don’t rely upon these bias errors within the parts of the power fluxes (resembling international cloud cowl) as claimed by Dr. Frank ….”
The problem goes again to the problem raised by the Charney Report: what are the feedbacks and the way properly can they be estimated? Consistency in mannequin outcomes doesn’t suggest that the local weather system is properly understood and even that the greenhouse impact is properly represented.
As Spencer states in his September 13 submit:
“The large query is, ‘How a lot will the local weather system heat in response to rising CO2?’ The reply relies upon not a lot upon uncertainties within the element power fluxes within the local weather system, as Frank claims, however upon how these power fluxes change because the temperature modifications.”
Acknowledged otherwise, what occurs depends upon how the power fluxes change. What predictions we will make depends upon the uncertainties within the power fluxes and the modifications in power fluxes. Spenser continues:
“And that’s what determines ‘local weather sensitivity.’
“This is the reason folks like myself and Lindzen emphasize so-called ‘feedbacks’ (which decide local weather sensitivity) as the principle supply of uncertainty in international warming projections.” See hyperlinks below Difficult the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, and Mannequin Points.
The Greenhouse Impact – Poor Measurements: In his dialogue of his new paper, Frank brings up a 2001 paper by Willie Quickly, et al. that is still vital in the present day in discussing the restrictions of world local weather fashions: “Modeling climatic results of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties.” Regardless of huge enhancements in computing energy, advances in know-how, and vital satellite tv for pc measurement sensors, the modelers usually ignore measurements of the ambiance, and keep on with floor measurements which have a number of flaws, notably the city warmth island impact in altering land use, even barely. The summary of the Quickly et al. paper states:
“As a result of the anticipated anthropogenic local weather forcings are comparatively small in comparison with different background and forcing elements (inside and exterior), the credibility of the modeled international and regional responses rests on the validity of the fashions. We give attention to this vital query of local weather mannequin validation. Particularly, we assessment frequent deficiencies generally circulation mannequin (GCM) calculations of atmospheric temperature, floor temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies come up from advanced issues related to parameterization of multiply interacting local weather parts, forcings and feedbacks, involving particularly clouds and oceans. We additionally assessment examples of anticipated climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns within the tough however vital activity of local weather modeling, the distinctive attribution of noticed present local weather change to elevated atmospheric CO2 focus, together with the comparatively well-observed newest 20 yr., will not be attainable. We additional conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future local weather projections from incomplete or unknown forcing eventualities is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic worth of fashions. Such uncritical software of local weather fashions has led to the generally held however inaccurate impression that modeling has confirmed or substantiated the speculation that CO2 added to the air has triggered or will trigger important international warming. An evaluation of the deserves of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human affect on international local weather will be discovered within the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations Environmental Programme¹s Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) reviews (1990, 1995 and the upcoming 2001 report). Our assessment highlights solely the large scientific difficulties going through the calculation of climatic results of added atmospheric CO2 in a GCM. The aim of such a restricted assessment of the deficiencies of local weather mannequin physics and using GCMs is to light up areas for enchancment. Our assessment doesn’t disprove a big anthropogenic affect on international local weather.”
The authors of this paper endured important private, advert hominem assaults for displaying the braveness of talking overtly on the boundaries of local weather modeling because it was being executed.
The identical criticisms apply in the present day. The greenhouse impact happens within the ambiance. Till the local weather modelers, or those that management their budgets, demand that local weather modelers incorporate atmospheric knowledge of their fashions, we will anticipate that local weather science as expressed by the IPCC and the USGCRP will proceed to stagnate, whereas particular person analysis advances, regardless of an absence of presidency financing. As Nir Shaviv said: The graph of modifications within the estimates from a doubling of CO2 is essentially the most boring he ever drew. Please word that two of the authors of the 2001 paper, Willie Quickly and Sherwood Idso obtained the Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award for “Distinctive Braveness within the Quest for Data.” See hyperlinks below Difficult the Orthodoxy.
Beautiful Ignorance: The as soon as distinguished American Geophysical Union, now known as AGU, “Advancing Earth and Area Science” has issued a place assertion for member remark. The assertion is titled:
“Society Should Deal with the Rising Local weather Disaster Now”. The opening sentence reads: “Immediate and concerted actions to restrict and adapt to human-caused local weather change are more cost effective than remaining on the present trajectory and might present nice advantages for human well-being.” The bit that’s most placing is:
“Lifelike and frequently bettering pc simulations of the worldwide local weather predict that each temperature and sea degree will proceed to rise on account of previous and future greenhouse fuel emissions. Previous emissions will contribute to some extra heating into the close to future. Nonetheless, the quantity of rise might be predominantly decided by future human-caused emissions. World common temperature will solely stabilize after internet emissions of CO2 attain zero, i.e. the quantity coming into the ambiance is matched by the quantity eliminated, and emissions of different greenhouse gases are steady or lowering.” [Boldface added.]
Do the authors of this assertion truly imagine that human emissions CO2 triggered the present interval? (That’s, the Quaternary, of the previous 2.5 million years — with frequent, extended glaciations interrupted by transient heat intervals.) That solely CO2 causes warming? See hyperlinks below Defending the Orthodoxy.
Troubles within the EU? Writing in Forbes on the EU, reporter Dave Keating discusses a little-known treaty that may convey important issues to politicians attempting to scale back use of carbon-based fuels – Vitality Constitution Treaty. Signed in 1991 and taking impact in 1998, the treaty governs
“…the cross-border power investments between the nations of the European Union and former Soviet states resembling Kazakhstan and Georgia. It handled quite a lot of points, however maybe essentially the most impactful was investor dispute settlement.
“The mechanism protects buyers in opposition to sudden regulatory modifications that may cancel the power tasks they’ve invested in.
“Sounds easy sufficient. However since then, the treaty has morphed into one thing nearly unrecognisable. Russia has since pulled out of the treaty, and the investor dispute settlement mechanism is being largely utilized by fossil gas corporations suing Western European nations for cancelling fossil gas tasks – nothing to do with the post-communist world.”
In response to Keating, in the present day, about two thirds of the investor lawsuits below the treaty contain an investor from one EU nation suing the federal government of one other EU nation. Governments (taxpayers) have been ordered or agreed to pay greater than $51 billion in claims. Litigation is escalating. See hyperlinks below After Paris.
Disciplined? Petteri Taalas, the Secretary Common of the World Meteorological Group (WMO) from January 2016 till January 2020, gave an interview to a Finnish journal wherein he disagreed with local weather doomsday extremists. The WMO is without doubt one of the UN mum or dad organizations to the IPCC. After the interview was picked-up by different information organizations, the WMO issued a press launch from Taalas stating:
“To cease a world temperature enhance of greater than 2 levels Celsius above pre-industrial ranges, the extent of ambition must be tripled. And to restrict the rise to 1.5 levels, it must be multiplied by 5.”
“WMO is coordinating a synthesis report of the newest local weather science ready below the auspices of the Science Advisory Group to the Local weather Motion Summit, which I co-chair. It can function a ‘clear envelope’ of authoritative and actionable cutting-edge science which underlines each the necessity for local weather motion in addition to options to assist in mitigation and adaptation.” See hyperlinks below Issues within the Orthodoxy.
SEPP April Idiot’s Winner: Final week, TWTW introduced the winner of the April Idiot’s Award is AOC by a landslide! Though many distinguished and never so distinguished folks had been nominated, resembling Ola Royrvik of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, Invoice Nye the supposed science man, Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Middle for Local weather Impacts, and Greta Thunberg, the younger factor; Alexandria Ocasio Cortez outpolled all of them – by far.
Though it’s tough to find any legislative accomplishments by AOC, one might say she has achieved an awesome deal in direction of incomes this prestigious award of a lump of coal. AOC, and her press, has helped impress candidates for the nomination for President by the Democratic Celebration into an absurd race to spend essentially the most cash to destroy a dependable, practical system of power, notably electrical energy, with costly, unreliable electrical energy.
The race to destruction is predicated on fears generated by fashions that haven’t been validated, and when examined in opposition to bodily proof, fail. Since regular science depends upon rigorous software of the scientific technique, one can time period this worry as paranormal science, supernatural. AOC’s former chief of workers, Saikat Chakrabarti, has been reported to say it’s not concerning the setting, it’s about management. That’s the challenge, increasing authorities management over the American public when it’s clearly not wanted. See hyperlinks below The Political Video games Proceed.
Variety of the Week: UP 24% — Argus Media payments itself because the “main unbiased supplier of power and commodity value benchmarks.” It reported that:
“Brazil’s grains and oilseeds crop rose by 6.4pc to a file 242mn metric tonnes (t) within the 2018-2019 harvest, boosted by elevated corn and cotton output.
“The whole in contrast with 227.7mn t from final yr’s crop, the nation’s agricultural statistics company Conab mentioned in its ultimate report on the season ended 30 June.
“The corn harvest rose by 24computer to a file 100mn t in 2018-19 from the prior yr. The ultimate quantity was pulled greater by favorable climate circumstances for winter corn, which accounts for practically two thirds of all of the nation’s cereal manufacturing.”
“Soybean output fell by Three.6pc to 115mn t, down from the prior harvest however nonetheless the second largest on file. The crop was impacted by scorching, dry climate between December-January, an vital interval for growth of the crop.” [Boldface added].
The Fourth Nationwide Local weather Evaluation (2018) by the USGCRP said that the Midwest would turn out to be too heat for agriculture. The key export crops of the Midwest are soybeans and corn (maize). The first competitor is Brazil with the agriculture areas within the tropics the place soybeans and maize are flourishing. For six years, Brazil has outproduced the US in soybeans for export. The failure to know agriculture signifies the standard of the work of US local weather scientists. See hyperlink below Agriculture Points & Concern of Famine
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Solar Rising?
Photo voltaic Spike Suggests a Extra Lively Solar
Radio waves are offering a brand new technique to probe the Solar and recommend that the magnetic subject of its corona could also be stronger than lengthy thought.
By Nola Taylor Redd, EOS, Sep 12, 2019
From Boycotting to Blacklisting
By Donn Dears, Energy For USA, Sep 13, 2019
Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019
Obtain with no cost:
Why Scientists Disagree About World Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Obtain with no cost:
Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
World Sea-Degree Rise: An Analysis of the Information
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Could 20, 2019
Difficult the Orthodoxy
The Religion Part of World Warming Predictions
By Roy Spencer, His Weblog, Sep eight, 2019
“We have no idea the quantitative common quantities of absorbed daylight and emitted infrared power throughout the Earth, both observationally or from first bodily rules, to the accuracy essential to blame most up-to-date warming on people slightly than nature.”
Modeling climatic results of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties
By Willie Quickly, Sallie Baliunas, Sherwood B. Idso, Kirill Ya. Kondratyev, Eric S. Posmentier, Inter-Analysis Science Writer, Nov 2, 2001
A Range High Analogy to Local weather Fashions
By Roy Spencer, His Weblog, Sep 13, 2019
Lengthy-Time period US Drought and Precipitation Tendencies
By Ross McKitrick, His Weblog, Sep 12, 2019
Hyperlink to paper: Assessing modifications in US regional precipitation on a number of time scales
By Ross McKitrick and John Christy, Journal of Hydrology, November 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“We then present that the development inferences [in the US National Climate Assessment] don’t maintain up when the info are prolonged again into the 1800s and that the development indicators reverse on the final Four a long time of the pattern, which is the other of what ought to occur if GHG’s are driving the modifications. We conclude that pure variability is probably going the dominant driver of historic modifications in precipitation and therefore drought dynamics within the US areas we look at.”
Burn Cash: wind farms in Tas and Vic are “correlated” — all ineffective on the similar time
The best way to make electrical energy costlier: construct 1,000MW of random era which wants costly again up and an undersea cable too.
Tasmania – Australia’s offshore wind farm?
By Tom Quirk and Paul Miskelly, Jo Nova’s Weblog, Sep 12, 2019
Local weather Emergency Tour: Edmonton Version
By Paul Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
Defending the Orthodoxy
Carbon Dioxide and Local weather: A Scientific Evaluation
Report of an Advert Hoc Research Group on Carbon Dioxide and Local weather, July 23 – 27, 1979
To the Local weather Analysis Board, Nationwide Analysis Council
Nationwide Academy of sciences, 1979
Place statements out for member assessment
By Employees, AGU, Accessed Sep 14, 2019
World warming has made iconic Andean peak unrecognizable
By Tim Appenzeller, Science Magazine. Sep 11, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
What If We Stopped Pretending?
The local weather apocalypse is coming. To organize for it, we have to admit that we will’t forestall it.
By Jonathan Franzen, The New Yorker, Sep eight, 2019
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Why People Stay within the Darkish about CO2
By Donn Dears, Energy For USA, Sep 10, 2019
Untouched by local weather change actuality
For years international Cassandras have predicted that doomsday is at hand
By Richard Rahn, Washington Occasions, Sep 9, 2019
Brazil’s Fires and Biofuels.
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Sep 11, 2019
There’s a carbon cycle?
By Paul Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
Local weather Altering for the Higher
By Mark Gelhaus, American Thinker, Sep 10, 2019
Ecological Grief – when scientists assume they want remedy, however what they actually need is debate
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Sep 14, 2019
[SEPP Comment: I KNOW I’m right, therefore there is nothing to debate!]
Time to Put an Finish to the Local weather Cult
By Spike Hampson, American Thinker, Sep 9, 2019
Former German Bundestag President Warns Of Local weather Activism’s “Anti-Democratic Affection”, “Debate Rigorism”
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Sep 10, 2019
A Little-Identified EU Investor Dispute Treaty Might Kill The Paris Local weather Settlement
By Dave Keating, Forbes, Sep 5, 2019
UK to host United Nations local weather change summit
By Employees, WNN, Sep 11, 2019
Change in US Administrations
Local weather skeptic on Nationwide Safety Council leaving Trump administration
By Justin Smart, The Hill, Sep 11, 2019
“Regardless of having no formal coaching in local weather science, Happer entered the Trump administration in September 2018 with well-known positions that pushed again in opposition to the scientific group’s understanding of world warming.”
[SEPP Comment: Happer is an internationally recognized expert in Atomic, Molecular, and Optical Physics (AMO), which includes the study of matter-matter and light-matter interactions. This is precisely the field that includes describing the mechanisms of the “greenhouse effect.”]
Why a high-profile local weather science opponent stop Trump’s White Home
By Scott Waldman, E&E Information, by way of Science, Sep 12, 2019
Each day Caller toes local weather alarmist line on Happer resignation
By E. Calvin Beisner, Cornwall Alliance, Sep 12, 2019 [H/t Thomas Wysmuller]
Issues within the Orthodoxy
Brazil FM says ‘climatism’ a bid to limit sovereignty
By Employees Writers, Washington (AFP) Sept 11, 2019
In Unprecedented Transfer, Head of Key Meteorological Group Slams Local weather Extremists
By Evan Pentichoukov, The Epoch Occasions, Sep 10, 2019
Assertion by WMO Secretary-Common Petteri Taalas
Press Launch, WMO, Sep 12, 2019 [H/t Mark Albright]
In search of a Frequent Floor
American Vitality Safety and Local weather Change
By Jim Webb & Jim Nicholson, Actual Clear Vitality, Sep 12, 2019
Don’t overhype the hyperlink between local weather change and hurricanes
By Judith Curry, Local weather And many others., Sep 10, 2019
Four inconvenient truths about local weather change
Editor’s word: The opinions on this article are the creator’s, as revealed by our content material companion, and don’t essentially signify the views of MSN or Microsoft.
By Noah Millman, MSN Information, Sep eight, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Overview of Latest Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Impact of CO2 and Temperature on Soybean Seed Vitamin
Köhler, I.H., Huber, S.C., Bernacchi, C.J. and Baxter, I.R. 2019. Elevated temperatures could safeguard the dietary high quality of crops below future elevated CO2 concentrations. The Plant Journal 97: 872-886. Sep 13, 2019
“Temperature stress, in contract, diminished yields in each years by 27% and 36%. Nonetheless, within the mixed elevated CO2 and elevated temperature therapy the yield will increase from elevated CO2 offset the yield declines from elevated temperature, absolutely mitigating the detrimental results of temperature stress and returning yield values to that noticed below management circumstances (ambient CO2 and ambient temperature).”
[SEPP Comment: Since the US National Climate Assessment [NCA 2018] assumes a temperature enhance from rising CO2, its conclusions on US agriculture are primarily based on hypothesis, not statement.]
Negligible Results of Ocean Acidification on a Juvenile Coral Reef Fish
Sundin, J., Amcoff, M., Mateos-González, F., Raby, G.D. and Clark, T.D. 2019. Lengthy-term acclimation to near-future ocean acidification has negligible results on energetic attributes in a juvenile coral reef fish. Oecologia 190: 689-702. Sep 12, 2019
Future Rice Yield Stimulation by Elevated CO2
Sakai, H., Tokida, T., Usui, Y., Nakamura, H. and Hasegawa, T. 2019. Yield responses to elevated CO2 focus amongst Japanese rice cultivars launched since 1882. Plant Manufacturing Science 22: 352-366. Sep 11, 2019
Mixed Results of Temperature and CO2 on Time-to-Plant-Flowering
Walker, S.M. and Ward, J.Okay. 2018. Interactions between rising CO2 and temperature drive accelerated flowering in mannequin vegetation below altering circumstances of the final century. Oecologia 187: 911-919. Sep 9, 2019
“In discussing their findings, Walker and Ward say that ‘the interactive results of rising CO2 and temperature over the past century could clarify why there was noticed accelerations in flowering occasions in long-term subject surveys that can not be replicated in warming-only research.’ Certainly, their outcomes recommend as a lot; a median Three-day discount in TTF per diploma enhance in temperature. What stays to be discerned, nevertheless, is how this advance could (or could not) influence different vegetation and the ecosystems wherein they reside.”
Propagation of Error and the Reliability of World Air Temperature Projections, Mark II.
Visitor submit by Pat Frank, WUWT, Sep 7, 2019 [H/t Dennis Amber]
Hyperlink to paper: Propagation of Error and the Reliability of World Air Temperature Projections
By Patrick Frank SLAC Nationwide Accelerator Laboratory, Frontiers in Earth Science, Sep 6, 2019
[SEPP Comment: See two links immediately below.]
Critique of “Propagation of Error and the Reliability of World Air Temperature Predictions”
By Roy Spencer, His Weblog, Sep 11, 2019
Further Feedback on the Frank (2019) “Propagation of Error” Paper
By Roy Spencer, His Weblog, Sep 12, 2019
Measurement Points — Floor
Europe August Temperature Tendencies Not Warming… As a substitute Have Been Cooling Over Previous 2 Many years
By Kirye, No Methods Zone, Sep 13, 2019
Local weather change could reduce soil’s capacity to soak up water
Press Launch, Rutgers College, Sep 11, 2019 [H/t Mark Liebe]
Hyperlink to a US Golf Affiliation paper illustrating the complexity of soil chemistry: Understanding The Totally different Wetting Agent Chemistries
A surfactant is a wetting agent however a wetting agent might not be a surfactant. stunned?
By Stanley Zontek and Stanley Kostka, Inexperienced Part Report, July 20, 2019
The Bettering Local weather Of The Northeast US
By Tony Heller, Actual Local weather Science, Sep 12, 2019
Local weather change poses main threat to flood insurance coverage program, consultants warn
By James Jarvis, The Hill, Sep 12, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Experts who don’t know how to read data. See paper by McKitrick and Christy under Challenging the Orthodoxy.]
Europe’s 2019 Warmth Wave: The Remainder of the Story
By Robert Endlich, Grasp Useful resource, Sep 12, 2019
“Sizzling, however Not Extraordinarily So
“The caterwauling from the mainstream media – and claims that 2019’s scorching summer season was a part of human-caused CO2-fueled international warming and a direct reason behind alleged excessive most temperatures – are simply not true. Evaluation of the claims and occasions reveals these had been merely scorching climate occasions in a heat summer season; claims of latest extremes are far-fetched and fade below scrutiny.”
Hurricane Dorian: Simply Climate, Not Local weather Change
By Chris Martz, Climate, Sep 7, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“We’re shortly approaching climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season¹ (September 10th) (Determine 1), thus it needs to be NO shock to anybody that now we have seen an uptick in tropical exercise. Nonetheless, I stand corrected － persons are shedding their minds about it.”
Tales From The Protected, Low CO2 Local weather Of 1900
By Tony Heller, Actual Local weather Science, Sep 10, 2019
[SEPP Comment: 1900 was the year of the Galveston Hurricane, considered the most destructive to hit the US.]
Altering Local weather
Let’s Welcome Warming! 2 New Research Present Species, Biodiversity Harmed Extra By Cooling Than Warming
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Sep eight, 2019
New Research: Of 53 Lengthy-Time period Tide Gauges On North America’s East/West Coasts, 24 Have Unfavorable Accelerations
By Kenneth Richard, No Methods Zone, Sep 9, 2019
Hyperlink to paper: The Nonlinear Sample of Sea Ranges: A Case Research of North America
By Alberto Boretti, Nonlinear Approaches in Engineering Purposes, Aug 7, 2019
Public Radio: Issues Unwell-Thought of
Visitor Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Sep 12, 2019
Altering Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Ship with Local weather Change Warriors caught in ice, Warriors evacuated
By Erofey Schkvarkin, Maritime Bulletin, Sep Four, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The warriors had to be helicoptered out – no fossil fuels used? No doubt, the scientists on the Fram in the 1890s would have had a few choice words for these warriors.]
Guardian Panic Over Svalbard–Up to date Pictures
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Sep 9, 2019
“While 2016 was an unusually gentle yr, different years lately haven’t been a lot hotter than the 1950s.
“Final yr, for example, the annual imply temperature was minus 2.38C, in comparison with minus 2.58C in 1957.
“I’m undecided rise of zero.2C in sixty years is something to panic about.”
Agriculture Points & Concern of Famine
Corn, cotton output push Brazil harvest to file
By Employees, Argus, Sep 10, 2019
A two-minute hate for methane
By Paul Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
CNN vs. What the Science Says, Half 2
By Dave Burton, reposted from Sea Degree Data, WUWT, Sep 12, 2019
L A Occasions “local weather change information” article conceals important international power & emissions knowledge
Visitor essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Sep 13, 2019
Newsflash: Coastal areas are moist
By Paul Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
The Media Discrimination In opposition to Chilly Climate
By Vijay Jayaraj, Townhall, Sep 13, 2019
Speaking Higher to the Public – Make issues up.
One other important forest in danger: Scientists worry warming water could possibly be killing off Puget Sound’s kelp beds
By Evan Bush, Seattle Occasions, Sep 13, 2019 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
[SEPP Comment: Off the Pacific Coast of North America, major kelp beds stretch from the Aleutian Islands far south to lower Baja California. In South America they are stretch north from southern Chile (about 52 degrees South latitude to the Ecuador, near the equator. Why bother with facts when you have a story to sell?]
Invoice Giles Doubles Down!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Sep 11, 2019
“It was again in 1996 that he began making these predictions, telling the Impartial that he was going to plant olive timber in his Oxfordshire backyard:”
Healthcare can worsen international local weather disaster
By Employees, Physics World, Sep 12, 2019
https://physicsworld.com/a/healthcare-can-worsen-global-climate-crisis/?utm_medium=e mail&utm_source=iop&utm_term=&utm_campaign=14290-43743&utm_content=Imagepercent3A%20Healthcare%20can%20worsen%20international%20local weather%20disaster%20-%20Editors_pick
[SEPP Comment: Assuming the “climate crisis” were the onset of a major ice age?]
Polar bear at a walrus haulout with cliffs in Russia: Netflix state of affairs another time?
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 13, 2019
Speaking Higher to the Public – Do a Ballot?
Price of Residing is greatest concern amongst Australian voters on either side of politics
What’s the polar reverse matter to local weather change? Most likely “value of residing”.
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Sep 10, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Perhaps the term “political opposite” may be better than “polar opposite.”]
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Propaganda on Kids
These ravenous polar bears falsely blamed on local weather change have scared youngsters to loss of life
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 12, 2019
The Delusion That the Polar Bear Inhabitants Is Declining
The story of a resurgent polar bear inhabitants deserves to be informed and applauded.
By Jon Miltimore, Basis for Financial Schooling, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Kids for Propaganda
Democrats invite teen local weather change activist Greta Thunberg to testify earlier than Congress
By Josh Siegel, Washington Examiner, Sep 12, 2019
“’We’re on the level the place a complete era has grown up within the local weather disaster,’ mentioned Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor of Florida, chairwoman of the Choose Local weather Disaster Committee. ‘They know the science they know the stakes they usually know the right way to rise to the problem. We have to rise with them.’”
[SEPP Comment: Is Congress up to the Challenge: Exploring the mysteries of the teenage brain?]
Increasing the Orthodoxy
Military might part out fossil fuels to draw ecofriendly recruits, senior common says
By Dominic Nicholls, The Telegraph, UK, Sep 13, 2019
Local weather Scientists Look to Poor International locations to Fund Geoengineering
Visitor essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 11, 2019
Ought to the worldwide group defend the Amazon?
By L. Vennin, Paris (AFP), Sept 6, 2019
Questioning European Inexperienced
EU nations have ‘no concrete plans’ to part out fossil gas subsidies: report
By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV.com, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Photo voltaic panels: Hundreds of consumers complain
By Ed Hanson, BBC, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Questioning Inexperienced Elsewhere
Buckets of icy chilly actuality
Democrat presidential candidates and Inexperienced New Sellers have to face some arduous power information
Visitor essay by Paul Driessen, WUWT, Sep 12, 2019
It’s a Science Emergency: What number of fires can Australia cease with photo voltaic panels and windfarms?
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Sep 12, 2019
The Political Video games Proceed
Hey Democratic Candidates: Are You Going To Ban All Fossil Fuels?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 9, 2019
“Thus far, although, I haven’t seen a single one in all these candidates handle issues like:
• How is an airplane going to work on this courageous new world?
• How are you going to warmth your home?
• How a lot is your electrical energy going to value?
• How is farm tools going to run?”
Marlo Lewis: Local weather questions for politicians (that nobody appears to wish to ask)
By Marlo Lewis, Fox Information, Sep Four, 2019
Have been Dems’ Local weather Platform a Faith it Would Be a Sham
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Sep 9, 2019
Braying Donkeys of Local weather Alarm; Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing
Visitor Publish by Simply Beau, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep eight, 2019
Liz Peek: Ignorance and silliness on show as Democrats race down local weather change rabbit gap
By Liz Peek, Fox Information, Sep 9, 2019
Bolsonaro’s scorched earth diplomacy might value Brazil
By Pascale Trouillaud, Rio De Janeiro (AFP) Sept 10, 2019
Cap-and-Commerce and Carbon Taxes
A ‘Conservative Case’ for Carbon Taxes That Isn’t
A coalition of previous Bush palms and Massive Oil corporations is attempting to seduce Republicans with a really unhealthy concept.
By Julie Kelly, American Greatness, Sep 10, 2019
Anti-Carbon Tax Campaigner Wins Canadian Province Elections
By Employees, Bloomberg, By way of GWPF, Sep 11, 2019
Democrats: People Received’t Pay Your Carbon Taxes
The “city corridor” had quite a lot of pleasure concerning the kinds of environmental insurance policies voters have repeatedly rejected.
By Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg, Sep eight, 2019
Subsidies and Mandates Endlessly
Greece, Slovenia amongst 5 EU nations to introduce new fossil gas subsidies – report
By Employees, Balkan Inexperienced Vitality Information, Sep 10, 2019 [H//t GWPF]
EPA and different Regulators on the March
EPA, U.S. Military Repeal 2015 Rule Defining “Waters of the USA” Ending Regulatory Patchwork
Press Launch, EPA, Sep 12, 2019
Trump administration to repeal waterway protections
By Miranda Inexperienced, The Hill, Sep 12, 2019
“The Environmental Safety Company (EPA) on Thursday will announce ultimate plans to redefine and thus shrink the waterways that should be protected below the regulation, …”
[SEPP Comment: These “waterways”, “navigable waterways of the United States” have included wet leaves hundreds of feet away from any stream.]
Trump administration takes key step to open Alaskan wildlife refuge to drilling by finish of yr
By Miranda Inexperienced, The Hill, Sep 12, 2019
Vitality Points – Non-US
Greta, Germany & Inexperienced Vitality
By Donna Laframboise, Massive Image Information, Sep 11, 2019
Hyperlink to report: Vitality Transition Index (English)
By Employees, McKinsey, Accessed Sep 13, 2019
Future Vitality Situations 2019
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Sep 12, 2019
Hyperlink to report: Future Vitality Situations (FES) present clear, holistic paths by means of future, unsure power landscapes.
By Employees, Nationwide Grid ESO, 2019
“As all the time, there are 4 eventualities, however I’ll focus on the “Two Levels” one, which appears to be the central assumption, designed to realize an 80% reduce in CO2 emissions by 2050.
“Within the FES, there may be the standard nonsense about giant scale hydrogen manufacturing, (requiring carbon storage), warmth pumps, EVs and renewables.
“However there are actually simply two tables which present how fanciful the entire thing is.”
Tufts Professor: If China Stops Constructing A lot of Coal Crops they are going to be a Local weather Chief
Visitor essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 12, 2019
Vitality Points – Australia
EPA Half 2: What number of levels Celsius of warming will these new WA Tips abate?
Time for the cost-benefit query. In a sane world, the enterprise case for carbon mitigation is sort of a bare singularity. Irrespective of what number of occasions the query is requested, no numerical reply ever emerges.
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Sep 9, 2019
Vitality Points — US
IHS: Pure Gasoline Costs Will Fall Beneath $2/MMBtu in 2020 [At the Henry Hub, Erath, La.]
By Sonal Patel, Energy Magazine, Sep 12, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Thanks to New York State blocking new pipelines to New England and the 1920 Jones Act, a cold New England winter will force New England to import LNG from places such as Russia.]
Washington’s Management of Vitality
As Home passes Arctic drilling ban, Inside goes the opposite method
Trump administration strikes to open a part of delicate space to drilling, a win for Alaska Republicans
By Benjamin J. Hulac, Roll Name, Sep 13, 2019
Home working to cripple America’s oil provide
By Jay Lehr, CFACT, Sep 11, 2019
Oil and Pure Gasoline – the Future or the Previous?
Local weather Disaster! Firms are Investing Massive in New Oil Fields
Visitor essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 9, 2019
Shale Gasoline: Penn State Researchers Rediscover Round Reasoning
By David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 11, 2019
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
Scientists Discover Cheaper Method Of Tapping Shale Gasoline Assets
By Irina Slav, Oil Worth.com, Sep 5, 2019
Russia’s Novatek proclaims launch of big Arctic fuel undertaking
By Employees, Phys.org, Sep 5, 2019
Nuclear Vitality and Fears
China plans big underground lab to analysis nuclear waste
By Julie Zaugg and Nanlin Fang, CNN, Sep 6, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Silenced by the eco-warrior institution
By Andrew Montford, The Conservative Girl, Sep 13, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
USA begins first business testing of silicide gas
By Employees, WNN, Sep 11, 2019
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind
A decade of renewable power funding, led by photo voltaic, tops over $2T
By Employees Writers, Frankfurt, Germany (SPX), Sep 09, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: Confusing spending with investment, what are the returns?]
German Wind Business In A Coma: Tenders For Wind Vitality Tasks “Have Fallen To New, All-Time Low”
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Sep 11, 2019
These U.S. States Generate The Most Wind And Photo voltaic Energy
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Sep 5, 2019
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Vitality — Storage
California’s Largest Battery Storage Set up to Be Put in in Mojave Desert
By Robert D. Castro and Daniel Beese, Energy Magazine, Sep 11, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Lacks discussion of expected costs to the consumer.]
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Autos
Carmakers close to CO2 cliff-edge in electrification race
By Laurence Frost, Edward Taylor, Reuters, Sep 9, 2019
Surprising information about electrical vehicles
By Paul Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
[SEPP Comment: After the essay there is an interesting comment from an engineer on efficiency of power plants and electric vehicles that call into question the referenced report.]
You Received’t Have A lot Luck Promoting Electrical Vehicles to Germans
By Brian Parkin, Bloomberg, By way of GWPF, Sep eight, 2019
Well being, Vitality, and Local weather
Infectious Illness: Issues Have Not Gotten As Silly As They Are Going To Get
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, Sep 5, 2019
New Research: Chilly-Temperature Deaths Rising And 10-20 Occasions Extra Frequent Than Warmth-Associated Deaths
By Kenneth Richard, No Methods Zone, Sep 12, 2019
Are Class 5 hurricanes resembling Dorian the ‘new regular’?–Asks Michael Mann
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Sep 11, 2019
Anti-Coal Protest Foiled: Polish Border Guards Cease, Board Greenpeace Vessel
By Thomas Williams, Breitbart, Sep 11, 2019 [H/t Paul Homewood]
“Greenpeace Poland Program Director Paweł Szypulski justified the group’s actions by saying they had been responding to an emergency.”
5 Heathrow Pause activists ‘preemptively’ arrested
Roger Hallam and Mike Lynch-White had been amongst these arrested in London earlier than Friday’s deliberate motion on the airport.
By Rebecca Taylor, Sky Information, Sep 12, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Oh, it feels hypocritical, does it?
By Paul Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
Different Scientific Information
Do animals management earth’s oxygen degree
By Employees Writers, Copenhagen, Denmark (SPX), Sep 11, 2019
Hyperlink to paper: Environment–ocean oxygen and productiveness dynamics throughout early animal radiations
By Tais W. Dah, et al., PNAS, Sep 9, 2019
NASA Selects Proposals to Advance Understanding of Area Climate
By Employees Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Sep 04, 2019
Lightning ‘superbolts’ type over oceans from November to February
Press Launch, College of Washington, By way of EurekAlert, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Different Information that Could Be of Curiosity
Columbia River commerce halted by Bonneville Dam closure
By Employees, AP, Sep 10, 2019 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
“About $2 billion in business cargo travels all the system yearly, based on the U.S. Military Corps of Engineers, and it’s the No. 1 export gate within the U.S. for wheat and barley and the No. 2 export gate for corn.”
Guess I’ll Go Eat Some Worms
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACHS, Sep 10, 2019
Shocking Parallels Discovered Between Photo voltaic Exercise And Hurricane Improvement
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Sep 7, 2019
Will Ingesting Crimson Wine Give You A More healthy Microbiome?
By Angela Dowden, ACSH, Sep 9, 2019
About These Nitrates in Our Meals
Your salad accommodates extra nitrates than a bacon sandwich.
By Donna Laframboise, Massive Image Information, Sep 9. 2019
PG&E’s Reorganization Plan—Cap Wildfire Liabilities at $18 Billion
By Darrell Proctor, Energy Magazine, Sep 9, 2019
Stripped-back auto present in Frankfurt mirrors German automotive industry gloom
By Employees, Occasions Now Information, Sep eight, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Cannibal for the Planet: Save the world, eat human flesh?
Only one step nearer to Aztec local weather management:
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Sep 10, 2019
Delingpole: Ship of Fools VI – Arctic ‘World Warming’ Mission Scuppered by Mysterious Exhausting White Substance
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t Jim Buell]
The whole Australian temperature file in 5 minutes
Entrancing dance of information by Tony Heller (aka Steve Goddard).
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Sep 7, 2019
[SEPP Comment: No significant warming since 1900 put to music.]
1. China to Exempt U.S. Soybeans and Pork From Punitive Tariffs
Measure follows President Trump’s two-week postponement of elevated tariffs on some Chinese language items
By Chao Deng in Beijing and Lucy Craymer in Hong Kong, WSJ, Sep 13, 2019
TWTW Abstract: The journalists write:
“China will exempt purchases of U.S. soybeans, pork and different agricultural merchandise from punitive tariffs, in a transfer that seems geared toward addressing one in all President Trump’s most urgent calls for through the protracted commerce conflict.
“China’s official Xinhua Information Company mentioned the federal government would help purchases of U.S. agricultural merchandise by Chinese language corporations and waive the tariffs that Beijing has imposed as commerce tensions have flared. The report didn’t specify the quantity of merchandise affected by the measure, which was attributed to the nation’s Commerce Ministry and its foremost financial planning company, the Nationwide Improvement and Reform Fee.
“The U.S. and China are in search of methods to interrupt a impasse within the persevering with commerce conflict earlier than the following spherical of high-level negotiations, scheduled to happen in Washington in early October.
“Either side have made goodwill gestures in latest days. On Wednesday, President Trump delayed a brand new spherical of tariff will increase on $250 billion of imports from China that may have taken impact Oct. 1, the 70th anniversary of Communist Chinese language rule—an obvious concession that the state-media report cited in justifying the lifting of tariffs on U.S. agricultural items.
“Beijing is individually seeking to slender the scope of its negotiations with the U.S. to solely commerce issues, in search of to put aside thornier national-security points for now and place them on a special monitor, The Wall Avenue Journal reported Thursday.
“China’s newest transfer might get a constructive reception from Mr. Trump, who mentioned after a Group of 20 leaders’ assembly in June that President Xi Jinping had agreed to make purchases of enormous quantities of U.S. farm items.
“China, for its half, made no official point out of such a dedication after the assembly, and The Wall Avenue Journal reported that Mr. Xi had made no such promise.
“Mr. Trump has since complained about what he regards as China’s backsliding on its dedication to purchase U.S. farm merchandise.
“The brand new measure can also be prone to be cheered by U.S. farmers rising soybeans in Illinois, elevating cattle in Texas and feeding hogs in North Carolina, all of whom have seen enterprise endure and costs fall on account of tariffs that Chinese language officers started implementing final yr.
“China has been one of many largest export locations for U.S. agricultural commodities since 2009. Nonetheless, U.S. agricultural exports to China halved in 2018 and had been down an extra 20% within the first six months of this yr. This fall in demand has harm costs for U.S.-produced commodities and added to the monetary challenges already going through American farmers.
“Components past the commerce conflict is perhaps behind China’s lifting of tariffs on gadgets resembling pork, a staple of the nationwide weight loss plan. A yearlong outbreak of lethal African swine fever has ravaged the nation’s hog inhabitants, and Beijing has struggled in latest weeks to extend pork provide, from pushing farming incentives to rationing and even opening its emergency pork reserves.”
The article then speculates on points that haven’t been absolutely resolved.
2. Canada’s Oil Market Finds Outlet in U.S. Demand
Canadian exports have jumped for the reason that U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil big
By Vipal Monga, WSJ, Sep 12, 2019
TWTW Abstract: The journalist writes:
“A glut of oil in Canada is easing, because of greater demand for dense crude from U.S. Gulf Coast refineries and government-imposed manufacturing cuts which have offset a scarcity of pipeline capability.
“Canadian oil stockpiles have fallen to their lowest degree since November 2017, with inventories dropping under 26 million barrels as of Aug. 30, based on knowledge supplier Genscape.
“The event is a shift from roughly a yr in the past. Again then, Canadian oil costs traded at a reduction of greater than $51 a barrel to the U.S. benchmark, based on S&P World Platts. The explanation? Congested pipelines prevented the nation’s producers from getting their oil out.
“A ensuing enhance in inventories, which added to the stress on costs, prompted the Alberta provincial authorities in December to order producers to chop output. This yr, a U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil has narrowed the hole between Western Canadian Choose and U.S. West Texas Intermediate. On Wednesday, the distinction was about $13 a barrel.
“In January, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the South American nation’s state-owned oil big, placing in danger roughly 500,00zero barrels of cargo a day. Canadian exports to the U.S. have jumped, as refiners alongside the Gulf Coast scrambled to fill the hole.
“‘The U.S. Gulf is structurally in need of heavy, bitter crudes,’ mentioned RBC Capital Markets power analyst Michael Tran, referring to the grade of dense crude oil produced in Venezuela and Canada.
“Whereas output from U.S. oil corporations has been plentiful, a lot of the crude produced from shale drilling is ‘gentle,’ that means it has a low density, and ‘candy,’ or low in sulfur. Many U.S. refineries are configured to course of some heavy, bitter crude to provide fuels like gasoline and diesel.”
The article continues with dialogue of particular import figures and hypothesis of the longer term.
[SEPP Comment: Last year, occasionally in the spot market Canadian crude was almost given away. The article again demonstrates that crude oil is not fungible, as commonly assumed. Refineries are designed around the characteristics of the particular crude oil that is most easily delivered to them, and their products are also unique.]