The Week That Was: 2019-08-17 (August 17, 2019)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Venture
Quote of the Week: “There are two methods to be fooled. One is to imagine what isn’t true; the opposite is to refuse to imagine what’s true.”—Soren Kierkegaard [H/t William Readdy]
Variety of the Week: 22 Years
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Venture (SEPP)
Censorship: Photo voltaic physicist Nir Shaviv reluctantly granted science journalist Doron Levin an interview, though Shaviv was skeptical that it will be revealed. The same interview to a reporter for Bloomberg was reject by its editorial board. Leven assured Shaviv that Forbes would publish the interview on-line. It did – for a couple of hours. The interview was a right away hit. Then, Forbes yanked the report with the assertion:
“After overview, this publish has been eliminated for failing to satisfy our editorial requirements.
“We’re offering our readers the headline, creator and first paragraphs within the curiosity of transparency.
“We remorse any inconvenience.”
Shaviv strongly helps the Svensmark speculation and has co-authored papers with Svensmark. The important thing challenge is that Shaviv considers that the rise in photo voltaic irradiation within the 20th century contributed one-half to two-thirds of estimated 20th century warming. These estimates are in direct distinction to the orthodox view expressed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) and its supporters who declare that the function of the solar in local weather change is minor, miniscule, in comparison with carbon dioxide (CO2). To his credit score, the journalist concerned wrote up the incident and the offending passages, which have been posted on the International Warming Coverage Discussion board.
In demonstrating its help of the local weather orthodoxy, “Forbes” substituted an article by Marshall Shepherd, previous president of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The opening paragraph states:
As a local weather scientist, I hear my share of myths about what’s inflicting local weather change or why it’s a ‘hoax.’ I name them ‘zombie theories’ as a result of they simply won’t die. They persist in blogs, sure networks, and social media like zombies lengthy after scientists have killed them off. I debunked 20 of them in a earlier article in Forbes. The ‘solar and its variability’ is one which makes the rounds. I’m fairly certain I’ve needed to spray ‘local weather science repellent’ on that nagging ‘mosquito’ quite a few occasions. This week I heard of a variation of this fable involving cosmic rays. Here’s a science-based debunking of the solar-cosmic ray fable.
Shaviv doesn’t take the bait and go into a reputation calling contest. As an alternative he presents exhausting observational proof supporting his views and contradicting Shepherd’s views and people of the IPCC. One of many strongest items of proof is a graph of over eighty years, from about 1915 to 2005 exhibiting the connection between Sea Stage Change Fee (mm/yr) and modifications within the Reconstructed Photo voltaic Fixed (watts per sq. meter).). The ocean stage change charge is from steady tidal gages. Because the oceans warmth, they broaden; as they cool, they contract. The connection of the modifications is kind of dramatic.
Shaviv presents a graph exhibiting the connection between sea ranges based mostly on satellite tv for pc altimetry (minus the linear development) and a mannequin which incorporates the photo voltaic cycle plus the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Once more, the connection may be very robust. [Note: those attempting to establish that sea level rise is increasing would do well to examine these relationships, but it is doubtful that they will. Also, since sea level change cannot cause significant changes in the solar constant, this analysis does not fall into the trap Al Gore did with ice cores showing CO2 and temperatures, where he confused the timing of the changes.]
Shaviv then modifies an ordinary IPCC graph to point out what his proof signifies is the true photo voltaic contribution over the 20th century and the overall forcing, pure and anthropogenic. He successfully dismisses the arguments that the photo voltaic results needs to be instantaneous by stating that the most well liked time of the day is normally after excessive midday, and the most well liked month of the season is normally after the summer time solstice.
A giant challenge with the IPCC and its followers dismissing the photo voltaic affect is the warmth capability of the oceans. As Shaviv states:
… “As a Professor of meteorology, Prof. Shepherd ought to know in regards to the warmth capability of the oceans such that assuming that the worldwide temperature is one thing occasions the CO2 forcing plus one thing else occasions the photo voltaic forcing is an excessive amount of of a simplification.
“As an alternative, one can and will simulate the 20th century, and past, and see that when taking the solar under consideration, it explains about half of to 2/3s of the 20th century warming, and that the perfect local weather sensitivity is round 1 to 1.5°C per CO2 doubling (in contrast with the 1.5 to Four.5°C of the IPCC). Two factors to notice right here. First, though the perfect estimate of the photo voltaic radiative forcing is a bit lower than the mixed anthropogenic forcing, as a result of it’s unfold extra evenly over the 20th century, its contribution is bigger than the anthropogenic contribution the majority of which passed off extra not too long ago. That’s why the perfect match offers that the photo voltaic contribution is half of to 2/3s of the warming. Second, the rationale that the perfect match requires a smaller local weather sensitivity is as a result of the overall web radiative forcing is about twice bigger. This means smaller sensitivity is required to suit the identical noticed temperature improve.”
Shaviv then offers the outcomes of a mannequin by Ziskin and Shaviv and compares it with the worldwide local weather fashions utilized by the IPCC. He compares the IPCC model 5 fashions with satellite tv for pc knowledge by each UAH and RSS and reanalysis knowledge. He demonstrates that the Ziskin and Shaviv mannequin extra intently matches atmospheric knowledge than others, apart from the one from the Institute of Numerical Arithmetic in Moscow. Shaviv concludes:
“Specifically, our predictions are completely per the satellite tv for pc (RSS / UAH, whichever you favor) and the Reanalyses datasets. Keep in mind, this was obtained for a mannequin which included the true photo voltaic contribution which requires a small local weather sensitivity.
“Shepherd additionally mentions that the hyperlink via cosmic ray flux variations has been debunked. I level the reader to a abstract of why these assaults don’t maintain any water, which I wrote yesterday.
“To summarize, Shepherd didn’t debunk the photo voltaic forcing. His arguments are defunct. Except he comes up with an excellent rationalization to the primary graph above, he ought to as an alternative advocate taking photo voltaic forcing under consideration. The truth that Forbes hushes up any risk for having a scientific debate needs to be thought-about actually bothersome by anybody who values free speech and scientific debate. Reality will prevail irrespectively.”
Shaviv offers a listing of publications in revered journals which might be typically ignored by the IPCC and its followers, particularly by the US International Change Analysis Program (USGCRP) in its Fourth Nationwide Evaluation. It’s clear that the IPCC and the USGCRP are political, not scientific. They don’t adhere to the scientific methodology.
Out of the sordid motion of censorship, these skeptical of the declare that CO2 is the first trigger of world warming have a superb abstract of the photo voltaic influences on local weather to confer with, to the extent they’re understood at the moment. See hyperlinks below Science: Is the Solar Rising? and Censorship.
Nature’s Authority: “Nature, Communications” revealed “Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of local weather change scientists and contrarians.” Within the title one can acknowledge a definite disconnect. In science, there aren’t any authorities; there are solely specialists, and they don’t at all times agree. Nevertheless, there’s a acknowledged process, the rigorous utility of the scientific methodology, which is an ongoing course of. Since CO2-caused world warming skeptics, contrarians, don’t acknowledge an authority, notably the IPCC and its followers; there isn’t any motive for them to stick to their prescriptions aside from for private achieve.
The foolishness of the article is nicely mentioned by Judith Curry, Christopher Monckton, and others. It’s amusing to notice listing ranked varied people, the highest 25 names embrace Fred Singer and the late Bob Carter; Singer was founding father of SEPP and the Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), and Carter was an editor of NIPCC experiences. Additionally, although the late Frederick Seitz is ranked decrease down, 4 of the six recipients of the Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award are within the high 25: Roy Spencer, Richard Lindzen, John Christy, and Willie Quickly.
The award is given yearly to an individual “For distinctive braveness within the quest for information.” It was created to acknowledge the unsung heroes who rigorously apply the scientific methodology. It rewards students for having the braveness to “swim towards the tide” of typical pondering regardless of the monetary and professional disincentives. See hyperlinks below Difficult the Orthodoxy and Speaking Higher to the Public – Go Private.
Teen Mind Wanted? Time Journal had a silly article on “Why Your Mind Can’t Course of Local weather Change.” The thrust is that in a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examination, sure elements of the mind reply to completely different stimuli. For youngsters, the prefrontal cortex, the massive a part of the mind that separates people from different mammals will not be nicely used, whereas the a part of the mind that responds private wants is. The creator makes use of this and asserts:
“How we select to worth future generations will assist resolve what we must always do now about existential dangers. That is very true for local weather change, which calls for motion within the current to avert devastation that may largely be felt sooner or later, maybe after many people now alive are useless.”
Thus, the argument is that mature adults must hearken to youngsters in relation to local weather change or some other long-term threats.
Somewhat than consulting futurists and others who imagine in “local weather collapse” with out exhausting proof, the creator would have performed nicely by consulting Well being Encyclopedia of the College of Rochester Medical Middle on the teenager mind. It reads:
“Understanding the Teen Mind
“It doesn’t matter how good teenagers are or how nicely they scored on the SAT or ACT. Logic isn’t one thing they will excel in, no less than not but.
“The rational a part of a teen’s mind isn’t totally developed and gained’t be till age 25 or so.
“The truth is, latest analysis has discovered that grownup and teenage brains work otherwise. Adults assume with the prefrontal cortex, the mind’s rational half. That is the a part of the mind that responds to conditions with common sense and an consciousness of long-term penalties. Teenagers course of data with the amygdala. That is the emotional half.
“In teen’s brains, the connections between the emotional a part of the mind and the decision-making middle are nonetheless growing—and never at all times on the similar charge. That’s why when teenagers have overwhelming emotional enter, they will’t clarify later what they have been pondering. They weren’t pondering as a lot as they have been feeling.” [Boldface and underline added.]
It isn’t turning into emotionally alarmed that’s necessary. However understanding the reason for the alarm, and what to rationally do about the reason for the alarm, which might be necessary. See hyperlinks below Speaking Higher to the Public – Go Private, and Different Information that Might Be of Curiosity.
Propaganda Props: Promoting has lengthy used kids to advertise the message. It may be seen on tv daily with various levels of success. It has lengthy been utilized in politics. Lyndon Johnson’s Presidential Marketing campaign used a younger baby enjoying within the foreground with a nuclear bomb exploding within the background to color his opponent, Barry Goldwater, as a struggle monger. Many supporters discovered the advert deplorable.
The identical might apply for CO2 alarmists utilizing kids as props to help their arguments, be it species extinction, litigation efforts, or symbolic crusing. The arguments are failing, as a result of the proof is weak. See hyperlinks below Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Kids for Propaganda.
July 2019 – Hottest Since 1880: Newspaper headlines have blared that NOAA declared that July 2019 “was the most well liked month measured on Earth since information started in 1880.” “Final month’s temperatures narrowly topped the earlier July document, set in 2016, by Zero.03 C (Zero.05 F).” The precision of one-hundreds of a level is very questionable, and not likely doable earlier than satellites – but NOAA ignores satellite tv for pc temperature information. Additionally fascinating is the place the devices positioned in 1880? In Greenland?
Little was recognized in regards to the inside of Greenland till the 1880s. The nice Swedish explorer of the Arctic, Nordenskiold, thought the middle of Greenland was an enormous ice-free valley. In 1883 he tried to find it, however failed, and solely bought about 73 miles in from the coast on the West. His scouts went farther however discovered no valley and reported the ice continued to rise to the east.
In 1888, the good Norwegian explorer, later statesman, Fridtjof Nansen and his get together climbed the excessive mountains on the East and skied throughout Southern Greenland. They reached an estimated altitude of two,700 meters (Eight,900 ft) above sea stage and located no valley. TWTW is searching for any proof of NOAA climate stations within the inside of Greenland in 1880, supporting the declare within the newspaper headlines. See hyperlinks below Measurement Points – Floor.
Homogenization: One of many extremely questionable practices undertaken by NOAA and NASA-GISS, the apply known as Homogenization. Paul Homewood posted a superb video by Tony Heller demonstrating how this apply can drastically distort floor temperature information, making the claims of information courting again to 1880 much more questionable. See hyperlinks below Difficult the Orthodoxy.
The Greenhouse Impact – Photo voltaic: As said above, Nir Shaviv estimates that when the affect of adjusting photo voltaic depth is accounted for, his estimate of a temperature improve as a consequence of a doubling of CO2 is 1 to 1.5°C (2 to three°F) as in contrast with the 1.5 to Four.5°C of the IPCC (Three to eight°F). The distinction is big when contemplating the purported risks of accelerating CO2.
Shaviv’s estimate may be very near the estimates of John Christy and his colleagues and William van Wijngaarden and his colleagues. Every group makes use of a unique method utilizing completely different datasets. We will count on much more strident objections and claims from the IPCC and its followers as their exaggeration is being uncovered by means of the scientific methodology.
In fact, we will count on much more extravagant exaggerations from those that are making the most of damaging insurance policies undertaken by misguided politicians. See hyperlinks below Questioning Inexperienced and Vitality Points.
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
The voting is closed and the winner who most intently meets the qualification is being chosen. No lacking shards right here, one hopes.
Variety of the Week: 22 Years: Shaviv asserts the photo voltaic cycle is de facto about 22 years, not the 11 years as typically used. The solar modifications polarity after each cycle, and this modifications its affect on cosmic rays, thus altering cloudiness. He states:
“Cloud cowl varies over the 11-year photo voltaic cycle (e.g., reference 9 under). This by itself will not be proof that the hyperlink is thru cosmic rays, since there are a number of issues that change with the photo voltaic cycle. Nevertheless, one notably fascinating side is that the cloud cowl variation are asymmetrical between odd and even cycles, simply as cosmic rays are, and in contrast to different photo voltaic associated variables which might be blind to the truth that the true cycle is 22 years (Polarity returns again to the identical state after two switches, therefore, 22 years…”
See hyperlink below Censorship
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Solar Rising?
Towards Censorship: The Local weather Story Forbes Doesn’t Need You to Learn
By Doron Levin, GWPF, Aug 9, 2019
Photo voltaic Debunking Arguments are Defunct
By Nir Shaviv, Science Bits, Aug 11, 2019
Forbes censored an interview with me
By Nir Shaviv, Science Bits, Aug 10, 2019
Why Photo voltaic Exercise And Cosmic Rays Can’t Clarify International Warming
By Marshall Shepherd, Forbes, Aug 10, 2019
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Local weather Examine Urges Blacklisting of Contrarians
Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, August 16, 2019
Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019
Obtain with no cost:
Why Scientists Disagree About International Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Obtain with no cost:
Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
International Sea-Stage Rise: An Analysis of the Information
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Temporary, Might 20, 2019
Difficult the Orthodoxy
How Homogenization Destroys Local weather Science
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Aug 15, 2019
Local weather Bias Leads Billions Into an Imaginary Local weather Disaster
By Vijay Jayaraj, Townhall, Aug 15, 2019
Hyperlink to paper: U.S. Home Committee on Science, Area & Know-how
Testimony of John R. Christy, U.S. Home Committee on Science, Area & Know-how, Mar 29, 2017
Fraud, breach of proper of privateness and libel by Nature Communications @NatureComms
By Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Aug 16, 2019
A Science Journalist Nails the Anthropocene
Visitor “attaboy” by David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 14, 2019
Hyperlink to article: The Anthropocene Is a Joke
On geological timescales, human civilization is an occasion, not an epoch.
By Peter Brannen, The Atlantic, Aug 13, 2019
The Biggest Scientific Fraud Of All Time — Half XXIV
By Francis Menton, Aug 14, 2019
Difficult the Orthodoxy – ICCC#13 Convention
My video presentation at ICCC#13
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 12, 2019
Contains one by Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics
Defending the Orthodoxy
State-led local weather objectives — like Washington’s — will cleared the path
By Jay Inslee, Hilary Franz and Mike Kreidler, The Seattle Instances, Aug 12, 2019 H/t Ken Schlichte]
Local weather report makes agri-business a goal
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Aug 11, 2019
Enhancements within the GISTEMP Uncertainty Mannequin
By Nathan J. L. Lenssen, Gavin A. Schmidt, James E. Hansen, Matthew J. Menne, Avraham Persin, Reto Ruedy and Daniel Zyss, JGR Atmospheres, June 27, 2019
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Enlisting peer-reviewed science within the local weather campaign
By Larry Kummer, Fabius Maximus web site, Aug 15, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“In July the BBC stated that the local weather change campaign should win within the subsequent 18 months. I imagine that may be appropriate, however not within the sense they supposed. The present propaganda barrage can not run for much longer. Activists should both win politically – making huge modifications to the financial system and society – or burn out.”
Gore Says His International Warming Predictions Have Come True? Can He Show It?
By J. Frank Bullitt, Points & Insights, Aug 12, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Pure Variability Domination: Defying Fashions, Scientists Discover LESS Excessive Precipitation In Latest Many years
By Kenneth Richard, No Methods Zone, Aug 15, 2019
Farm unions accuses media of ‘inflating’ IPCC report
By Rachel Marin, AgriLand, UK, Aug 10, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Nations agree landmark UN local weather report after marathon talks
By Mauro Pimentel, APF, Aug 7, 2019
[SEPP Comment: It appears that for them, the science is not settled.]
Change in US Administrations
Local weather skilled at CDC poised to file whistleblower grievance over remedy
By Maya Earls, E&E Information, By way of Science, Aug 14, 2019
“Together with allegedly stifling Luber’s work, the Trump administration has additionally tried to make use of the finances course of to do away with the CDC local weather program.
“In its newest finances, the White Home proposed giving the NCEH a $52.Four million lower and eliminating the Local weather and Well being Program.”
Right here’s how Workforce Trump will bust Cuomo’s gasoline blockade
By Andrew Wheeler, New York Put up, August 15, 2019 [H/t Cooler Heads]
[SEPP Comment: Andrew Wheeler is the Administrator of the EPA.]
Trump rolls again endangered species protections
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Aug 12, 2019
USA lastly updates Endangered Species Act after 45 years & the choice is remaining
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Aug 12, 2019
Social Advantages of Carbon Dioxide
New Paper: CO2 Rise + Warming Are 91% Accountable For The Earth’s Accelerated Greening Development Since 1990
By Kenneth Richard, No Methods Zone, Aug 12, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Question the precision of the calculations.]
Issues within the Orthodoxy
Africa’s tropical land emitted extra CO2 than the US in 2016, satellite tv for pc knowledge exhibits
By Daisy Dunne, Carbon Temporary, Aug 13, 2019
In search of a Frequent Floor
Empiricism and Dogma: Why Left and Proper Can’t Agree on Local weather Change
By Patrick Brown, Quillette, July 30, 2019 [H/t Climate Etc.]
“It truly is the case that the Proper is extra prone to deny probably the most well-established points of the science. If skeptical conservatives are to be satisfied, the Left should be taught to reframe the problem in a method that’s extra palatable to their worldview.”
[SEPP Comment: What are “the most well-established aspects of the science” supported by hard evidence, not unvalidated models?]
Why Info Don’t Change Our Minds
By James Clear, His Weblog, Accessed Aug 16, 2019 [H/t Climate Etc.]
We Want a New Science of Progress
Humanity must get higher at understanding learn how to get higher.
By Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen, The Atlantic, July 30, 2019
Is International Warming an Existential Menace? In all probability Not, However Nonetheless a Critical Challenge.
By Cliff Mass, Climate and Local weather Weblog, Aug 12, 2019
Assessment of Latest Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Elevated Temperature and CO2 Scale back Potato Virus Y Transmission Charges
del Toro, F.J., Choi, Okay.S., Rakhshandehroo, F., Aguilar, E., Tenllado, F. and Canto, T. 2019. Ambient circumstances of elevated temperature and CO2 ranges are detrimental to the chances of transmission by bugs of a Potato Virus Y isolate and to its stimulated prevalence within the setting. Virology 530: 1-10. Aug 16, 2019
Grassland Productiveness Responses to Elevated CO2
Polley, H.W., Aspinwall, M.J., Collins, H.P., Gibson, A.E., Gill, R.A., Jackson, R.B., Jin, V.L., Khasanova, A.R., Reichmann, L.G. and Fay, P.A. 2019. CO2 enrichment and soil kind additively regulate grassland productiveness. New Phytologist 222: 183-192. Aug 14, 2019
“Commenting on the CO2-induced improve in ANPP, the researchers say that ‘the predominant direct impact of CO2 on ANPP might be defined by elevated photosynthetic water use effectivity (assimilation charge/transpiration charge),’ which improve ‘most likely arose from elevated canopy-level C assimilation charges’ noticed in earlier observations in the course of the ten-year experiment. And that’s fantastic information for these necessary ecosystems and the animals and people that may profit from such productiveness will increase within the years and many years forward!”
The Interactive Results of CO2, Phosphorus Provide and Cyanobacterial Inoculation on Cowpea
Dey, S.Okay., Chakrabarti, B., Purakayastha, T.J., Prasanna, R., Mittal, R., Singh, S.D. and Pathak, H. 2019. Interaction of phosphorus doses, cyanobacterial inoculation, and elevated carbon dioxide on yield and phosphorus dynamics in cowpea. Environmental Monitoring and Evaluation 191: 223, doi: 10.1007/s10661-Zero19-7378-Three. Aug 12, 2019
Fashions v. Observations
Rising water stress may counteract ‘world greening’, research says
By Daisy Dunn, Carbon Temporary, Aug 14, 2019
Hyperlink to paper: Elevated atmospheric vapor strain deficit reduces world vegetation progress
By Wenping Yuan, et al., Science Advances, Aug 14, 2019
From summary: “Six Earth system fashions have constantly projected steady will increase of VPD [Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit] all through the present century.
[SEPP Comment: Six Earth system models have spoken: drip irrigation of roots does not work (?) Numerous studies show that under higher CO2 concentrations plants better withstand stresses, such as droughts, better. The observations may be from a lessening of water loss from more healthy plants.]
Measurement Points — Floor
Coolest Yr On Report Continues
By Tony Heller, The Deplorable Local weather Science Weblog
“The frequency of scorching days has plummeted within the US over the past 80 years.”
‘Hottest Temps Ever’ Alarms Reveal Ignorance of Historical past
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Aug 12, 2019
July 2019 – Hottest July Ever?
Information Temporary by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 16, 2019
Scientists Affirm July Set New International Warmth Report
Scientists say measurements present July set a brand new world temperature document.
By Frank Jordans, Related Press, US Information, Aug. 15, 2019
India’s Monsoon On Monitor
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Aug 16, 2019
Gradual Hurricane Season No Shock As Tropical Storm Tendencies Defy Local weather Alarmist Warnings
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Aug 14, 2019
Smoke: what a distinction a yr makes.
By Cliff Mass, Climate and Local weather Weblog, Aug 13, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Why “wildfires” are no longer the fad of the day?]
Widespread snow everywhere in the East Coast of Australia – first time in many years
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Aug 11, 2019
Altering Local weather
China scientists warn of world cooling trick up nature’s sleeve
Analysis sheds gentle on 500-year Chinese language climate cycle and suggests a cool change may very well be on the way in which
Findings go away no room for complacency or inaction
By Stephen Chen, South China Morning Put up, Aug 11, 2019
Nice Barrier Reef Is in A lot Higher Form Than Local weather Alarmists Declare, Australian Environmental Minister Confirms
By Graham Lloyd, The Australian, By way of GWPF, Aug 14, 2019
“The GBR Basis has been given $444 million by the federal authorities and is predicted to lift matching funds from personal donors.”
Altering Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Sea=ice Loss Has ‘Minimal Affect’ on Extreme Chilly Winter climate, Analysis Exhibits
Press Launch, College of Exeter, By way of GWPF, Aug 12, 2019
Hyperlink to paper: Minimal affect of lowered Arctic sea ice on coincident chilly winters in mid-latitudes
By Russell Blackport., et al., Nature, Local weather Change, Aug 12, 2019
Greenland’s ‘Report Temperature’ denied – the information was unsuitable
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 12, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is to be thanked for being forthcoming about the erroneous instrument readings.]
Greenland Meltdown Hoax
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Aug 13, 2019
Largest impression crater within the US, buried for 35 million years
By Workers Writers, Tucson AZ (SPX) Aug 15, 2019
Hyperlink to Paper: (U‐Th)/He zircon courting of Chesapeake Bay distal impression ejecta from ODP website 1073
By M. B. Biren, et al. Meteoritics & Planetary Science, June 21, 2017
[SEPP Comment: The extent of the crater was revealed by oil drilling in the 1990s.]
Local weather change extremists are plotting a drone assault to close down Heathrow airport threatening chaos for greater than one million vacationers
By Holly Bancroft, Sunday Mail, UK, Aug 10, 2019
Speaking Higher to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Obscure?
International Vegetation Reducing, As The World Will get Greener (Or One thing Like That!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Aug 16, 2019
Simply the details?
By Gavin (Schmit?) Actual Local weather, Aug 9, 2019 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Hyperlink to paper: Understanding the rhetoric of local weather science debates
By Lynda Walsh, WIREs Local weather Change, Dec 29, 2016
Speaking Higher to the Public – Make issues up.
Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of local weather change scientists and contrarians
By Alexander Michael Petersen, Emmanuel M. Vincent & Anthony LeRoy Westerling, Nature Communications, Aug 13, 2019
Speaking Higher to the Public – Go Private.
The most recent travesty in ‘consensus enforcement’
By Judith Curry, Local weather And so on. Aug 14, 2019
Hyperlink to paper: Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of local weather change scientists and contrarians
By Alexander Michael Petersen, et al, Nature Communications, Aug 13, 2019
Nature Communications ‘blinks’ over slimy local weather blacklist from @UCmerced authors
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 16, 2019
Time Magazine — Buttering up Believers: Why deniers brains can’t course of local weather change
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Aug 15, 2019
Why Your Mind Can’t Course of Local weather Change
By Bryan Walsh, Time, Aug 14, 2019
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Propaganda
Goldsmiths [University] Ban Beef
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Aug 16, 2019
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Kids for Propaganda
Greta’s Transatlantic Sail Turning Into Grand Farce…Will Wind Up Inflicting Many Extra Tons Of CO2 Emissions!
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Aug 16, 2019
Questioning European Inexperienced
There’s a Massive Inexperienced Backlash Coming Our Means
By Martha Gill, The Instances, By way of GWPF, Aug 16, 2019
“Johnson will not be essentially heading in a inexperienced course. He’ll observe, for one factor, that there are few political features in making an attempt to please the liberal left and centre, the elements of the voters that care most in regards to the setting. He can throw all of the energy-saving lightbulbs and 5p plastic luggage at them he likes, he gained’t win them spherical to the remainder of his hard-Brexit, fill-up-the-prisons provide, aimed purely on the proper.”
Unique: Germany eyes fiscal U-turn with new debt to finance local weather plan
By Michael Nienaber, Reuters, Aug Eight, 2019
An costly style of the zero-carbon future
By Kathy Gyngell, The Conservative Girl, Aug 12, 2019
Conservative “Achievements” On The Atmosphere
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Aug 12, 2019
In exhorting us to not eat meat, inexperienced preachers place [their] morality over motive
By Charles Moore, The Telegraph, UK, By way of GWPF, Aug 10, 2019
Revealed: The Inexperienced Vitality Con – How the ‘Clear’ Energy Your [sec] Purchase Comes Primarily from Fossil Fuels
By Workers, The Sunday Telegraph, UK, By way of GWPF, Aug 11, 2019
“Households on ‘100computer renewable’ vitality tariffs could also be getting as little as Three.7pc of their vitality from actually inexperienced sources.”
Questioning Inexperienced Elsewhere
From The B-Faculty: A Plan To Win The Millennials’ Struggle On Carbon
Visitor publish by Timothy Nerenz, Ph.D., WUWT, Aug 17, 2019
[SEPP Comment: No matter the costs?]
Renewable Vitality: Second Ideas (Moore/Gibbs documentary within the information)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Grasp Useful resource, Aug 14, 2019
NYT: Lawns are Symbols of Racism and Dangerous for International Warming
Visitor essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 16, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Lawns were once considered important to keep snakes away from the house.]
Local weather Hustler, Associate At ‘Past Meat’ Largest Investor, Al Gore Strikes To Revenue Massive From Anti-Meat Drive
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Aug 13, 2019
The Political Video games Proceed
Local weather Crusader Tom Steyer “Cash Bombs” His Means into the Democrat Presidential Debates
Visitor essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 16, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Are other candidates who were hoping for substantial contributions from Steyer and his friends disappointed by his candidacy?]
22 States, Environmental Teams Mount Authorized Challenges to EPA ACE Rule
By Sonal Patel, Energy Magazine, Aug 15, 2019
Cap-and-Commerce and Carbon Taxes
Bonanza, not: With govt manipulation carbon credit rise again to 2008 ranges
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Aug 13, 2019
Subsidies and Mandates Eternally
A Tax Credit score Fueled the Photo voltaic Vitality Growth. Now It’s in Limbo
By Daniel Oberhaus, Wired, Aug 14, 2019
In June, Nevada senator Catherine Cortez Masto wrote a letter urging her fellow senators to help an extension of the photo voltaic funding tax credit score. Cortez Masto highlighted its significance to supporting 240,00Zero photo voltaic jobs and its function in fueling the photo voltaic business’s ongoing progress. However most significantly, she identified that it’s the one main federal coverage supporting the deployment of renewable vitality.
[SEPP Comment: Yet, the article discusses the production tax credit for wind and does not include the ethanol subsidies.]
EPA and different Regulators on the March
The EPA Grows A Pair And Takes A Stand On Glyphosate
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Aug 13, 2019
Hyperlink to report: Glyphosate Draft Human Well being Danger Evaluation for Registration Assessment
By Workers, EPA, Feb 28, 2018
Vitality Points – Non-US
Aurora’s Blackout Evaluation
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Aug 14, 2019
Nationwide grid Advised to Clarify Itself After Energy Minimize Chaos
By Billy Kenbar, The Instances, By way of GWPF, Aug 12, 2019
“It left Ipswich hospital with out energy for 15 minutes after a back-up generator didn’t work as anticipated.”
Fury at energy minimize that introduced Britain to its knees: Authorities launches probe into thriller simultaneous failure of wind farm and gas-fired energy station as officers insist there’s ‘no proof’ of a cyber assault
By Darren Boyle, Mail, UK, Aug 10, 2019
Lightning Strike and Wind Farm Fault Triggered UK Blackout Chaos
By Workers, The Instances, By way of GWPF, Aug 16, 2019
“A technical fault on the world’s largest offshore wind farm was amongst a sequence of failures that resulted in Britain’s worst blackouts in a decade, in keeping with preliminary evaluation by Nationwide Grid.”
Energy Cuts? What Energy Cuts?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Aug 14, 2019
“When will the media get up and ask the plain query? What would have occurred final week if all of our coal and gasoline energy stations had already been shut down…?”
Surprising UK EarthHour at peak time Friday — simply after Wind Energy hits new excessive?
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Aug 11, 2019
UK to probe world’s largest offshore wind farm’s function in blackout
Lack of energy from Hornsea 1 and gasoline plant blamed for outage that hit swathe of nation of Friday
By Andrew Lee, Recharge Wind, Aug 12, 2019
Delingpole: Boris Johnson’s Looming Wind Catastrophe
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Aug 12, 2019
Baffled by baseload? Dumbfounded by dispatchables? Right here’s a glossary of the vitality debate
By Ariel Liebman, The Dialog, Sep 25, 2017
The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline And The Risks Of Transferring Too Rashly Towards Renewable Vitality
By Daniel Markind, Forbes, Aug 12, 2019
U.S. Efforts To Derail Russian Pipelines To Europe Have Failed Since The 1960s. Will Nord Stream 2 Be Any Completely different?
By Todd Prince, Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, Aug 13, 2019
Vitality Points – Australia
Why is the Australian vitality regulator suing wind farms – and why now?
By Samantha Hepburn, The Dialog, Aug 9, 2019
Vitality Points — US
Offshore Wind Mania Grips Governors
By Paul Steidler, Actual Clear Vitality, Aug 12, 2019
[SEPP Remark: In keeping with the EIA, apart from New England, Alaska and Hawaii, California has the very best Common Worth of Electrical energy to Final Shoppers by Finish-Use Sector.
Venezuela’s U.S. Oil Loss Is Canada’s Achieve
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Aug 14, 2019
Oil and Pure Gasoline – the Future or the Previous?
UK authorities authorises the resumption of fracking in Lancashire
By Jack Unwin, Energy Know-how, Aug 16, 2019
[SEPP Comment: A key question is the geological uniformity of the shale layers.]
Different, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind
Low cost renewables will value out oil on roads
By Paul Brown, Local weather Information Community, Aug 16, 2019
“BNP Paribas Asset Administration calculates that oil majors like Exxon, BP and Shell must produce petrol from oil at $10 a barrel (the present value is $58) to compete with electrical energy on value, whereas for diesel, it says, oil can value not more than $19 a barrel.”
[SEPP Comment: Don’t bank on it!]
ERCOT calls 2nd vitality emergency this week, Third in 5 years
By Robert Walton, Utility Dive, Aug 16, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Back to the 1970s, with different causes?]
Feds Delay Environmental Allow for Winery Wind Venture
By Darrell Proctor, Energy Magazine, Aug 13, 2019
Vitality & Environmental Publication: August 12, 2019
By John Droz, Jr. Grasp Useful resource, Aug 12, 2019
Different, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Vitality — Different
Trump intervention triggered EPA’s shock biofuel waiver resolution: sources
By Humeryra Pamuk, Reuters, Aug 16, 2019
[SEPP Remark: Actual or rumors?
Different, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Autos
Electrical automobile charging stations could also be portals for energy grid cyberattacks
By Workers, NYU Tandon Faculty of Engineering, TechXplore, Aug 15, 2019
Different Scientific Information
Blue sharks use ocean eddies as fast-tracks to meals
Press Launch, NSF, Aug 12, 2019
Hyperlink to paper: Mesoscale eddies launch pelagic sharks from thermal constraints to foraging within the ocean twilight zone
By Carmin Braun, et al., PNAS, Aug 6, 2019
“Blue sharks can’t regulate their physique temperature internally to remain hotter than the ambient seawater like white sharks can,” stated Braun. “We predict that’s why they present a transparent desire for warm-water eddies.”
Different Information that Might Be of Curiosity
New course of found to fully degrade flame retardant within the setting
By Workers Writers¸ Amherst MA (SPX). Aug 09, 2019
Hyperlink to paper: Degradation of Tetrabromobisphenol A by Sulfidated Nanoscale Zerovalent Iron in a Dynamic Two-Step Anoxic/Oxic Course of
By Jun Wu, et al. Environ. Sci. Technol. Might 22, 2019
The junk science behind the anti-birth motion
Harry and Meghan’s two-child pledge relies on some severely dodgy assumptions.
By James Woudhuysen, Spiked, Aug 12, 2019
Understanding the Teen Mind
By Workers, Well being Encyclopedia, College of Rochester Medical Middle, Accessed June 1, 2019
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Monday Mirthiness: job posting ‘CLIMATE EMERGENCY OFFICER’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 12, 2019
[SEPP Remark: Should the applicant show the flexibility to carry again the tides?]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Aug 14, 2019
1. A Kamikaze Local weather Swimsuit
Democratic states suing the EPA may harm their very own emissions trigger.
Editorial, WSJ, Aug 16, 2019
SUMMARY by TWTW: The editorial opens by stating a key lawsuit might backfire. It explains:
“Twenty-two Democratic state Attorneys Basic and 7 cities this week requested the D.C. Circuit Court docket of Appeals to vacate the Trump EPA’s CO2 emission guidelines for coal crops. The Clear Air Act directs the EPA to implement the “finest system of emission discount” for pollution, which the company has historically utilized to particular person energy crops.
“The Obama EPA went additional and required states to re-engineer their electrical grids by changing all coal and finally pure gasoline with wind and photo voltaic. The Supreme Court docket in 2016 stopped the Obama energy seize from being carried out because it doubtless exceeded the EPA’s authorized authority and unconstitutionally commandeered the states.
“The result’s that federal CO2 emission requirements for energy crops have been nonexistent. Final month the Trump EPA issued new laws requiring states to implement the “finest system of emission discount” by making on-site effectivity enhancements at coal crops. The rule offers states flexibility and gained’t power them to prematurely shut crops.
“But Democratic states complain in asserting their lawsuit that the “EPA’s rule rolls-back [the Obama] limits and can have just about no impression on these emissions prolonging the nation’s reliance on polluting, costly coal energy crops and obstructing progress of states towards clear, renewable, and inexpensive electrical energy technology.” That is false in each respect.
The Trump rule will cowl 600 coal-fired crops and minimize emissions to 34% under 2005 ranges—just like what the Obama Clear Energy Plan purported to realize. Because the Trump rule notes, ‘up to date evaluation exhibits the [Clean Power Plan] would haven’t any impact on future CO2 emissions’ as a consequence of ‘present market developments.’
“Coal crops have struggled to compete with low cost pure gasoline and closely sponsored renewables. As a lot coal energy will likely be phased out throughout President Trump’s first three years in workplace as throughout Barack Obama ’s final three. Dozens of coal crops are slated to retire over the subsequent few years no matter authorities diktats.
“But some utilities and coal plant house owners are at present investing in emission-control applied sciences to change into extra environment friendly and aggressive. By giving coal a demise sentence, the Obama rule would have halted these investments and coal emission reductions within the brief time period.
“Additionally observe that energy-related CO2 emissions declined by 14% within the U.S. from 2005 to 2017 whereas rising 21% globally. Many of the U.S. discount was as a consequence of pure gasoline changing coal. Carbon dioxide emissions fell 5 occasions extra in Ohio and 4 occasions extra in Pennsylvania between 2006 and 2016 than in California, which had lengthy banished coal.
“Vacating the Trump rule wouldn’t reinstate the defunct Obama Clear Energy Plan, however would as an alternative produce a regulatory vacuum. Democrats might not have standing to sue since they gained’t endure a concrete hurt from the Trump rule, and so they stay free to impose local weather mandates inside their borders.
“Maybe they hope the D.C. Circuit will enjoin the Trump rule and power EPA to challenge extra aggressive requirements below the Supreme Court docket’s Massachusetts v. EPA (2007) ruling, which required the company to control CO2 as a pollutant. However the Court docket’s 4 conservatives who dissented stated states lacked standing to sue and courts couldn’t impel EPA to control CO2.
“In his dissent, Chief Justice John Roberts famous that ‘the very idea of world warming appears inconsistent with this particularization requirement’ of standing since ‘world warming is a phenomenon ‘dangerous to humanity at massive,’ and the redress petitioners search is concentrated no extra on them than on the general public typically—it’s actually to vary the environment world wide.’
“Even some liberals warn that suing the Trump Administration may invite the Court docket’s new conservative majority to revisit Massachusetts v. EPA. Democratic states could also be betting that President Trump gained’t be round by the point the Court docket may contemplate his EPA’s new rule. However don’t be so certain if Democrats proceed their anti-fossil gasoline campaign.”
2. ‘Fraud within the Lab’ Assessment: Experiments in Doubt
Lapses of rigor, deceptive strategies, outright falsiﬁcation: How frequent are the transgressions of analysis scientists?
By Sally Satel, WSJ, Aug 14, 2019
SUMMARY by TWTW: The psychiatrist and a resident scholar on the American Enterprise Institute opens her overview the ebook by stating
“Scientific misconduct is unquestionably as previous as scientific inquiry, however within the trendy period the mainstream media took little discover of it earlier than 1974. In that yr, it flagged the case of a medical researcher at Memorial Sloan Kettering in New York who used a felt-tip pen to darken patches of purportedly black pores and skin transplanted onto white mice. Inside a few years, individually, the British psychologist Cyril Burt was posthumously discovered to have invented knowledge to help his principle that IQ was largely inherited.
“Rocked by these and different revelations, the scientific group started devising mechanisms to detect dishonest scientists and maintain them accountable. Virtually half a century later, there are nonetheless issues, in keeping with Nicolas Chevassus-au-Louis, a French investigative journalist and a former biomedical researcher. In ‘Fraud within the Lab,’ a compact ebook that’s half exposé and half manifesto, he units out to quantify what he calls an ‘epidemic’ of fraud that’s worldwide in scope, to explain its results and to chart a path ahead.
“Mr. Chevassus-au-Louis says that the most typical fraud offenses match right into a class he cheekily labels ‘storytelling and beautification.’ They embrace a failure to report conflicting knowledge and using deceptive analytical strategies. (‘Beautification’ may be nearly literal at occasions: In 2012, a whistleblower in Japan revealed how ‘picture retouching,’ in multiple scientific journal, had exaggerated the ends in cell-biology research.) Different maneuvers embrace redefining the speculation that guides an experiment after the outcomes are in, a transfer that, retroactively, renders the experiment’s design much less applicable to what’s being investigated and the outcomes weaker than researchers might declare.
“How frequent are such transgressions? Most strikingly, Mr. Chevassus-au-Louis cites a 2009 overview of 21 surveys asking scientists about their analysis conduct. A 3rd of the respondents world-wide admitted to having dedicated ‘questionable analysis practices’ that fell someplace between lapses of rigor and outright fraud. These integrity breaches are the damaged home windows of analysis: When ‘passively accepted in analysis circles,’ the creator states, ‘they open the door to extra critical misconduct.’
By ‘critical misconduct’ Mr. Chevassus-au-Louis means fabrication, falsification and plagiarism. Any one among these sins can lead to the retraction, or public invalidation, of a broadcast paper. Having a paper ‘pulled’ for fraud, versus trustworthy error, is the final word scarlet letter for a researcher and knowledgeable tragedy for his unwitting collaborators.
“The proportion of retracted articles, Mr. Chevassus-au-Louis says, jumped 11-fold between 2001 and 2010. Though lower than 1% of all scientific papers have been retracted in that point, he believes that the proportion needs to be larger. He factors to that 2009 survey-review, through which 2% of the scientist-respondents admitted that they’ve fabricated or falsified outcomes no less than as soon as; 14% stated that they knew of colleagues who had performed so.
“The analysis universe has been additional plagued, Mr. Chevassus-au-Louis notes, by the issue of reproducibility—a matter of particular consideration within the social sciences. The supply of the difficulty in lots of instances is a failure by the unique authors to explain analysis strategies in adequate element. To its credit score, a involved group of researchers led by a professor on the College of Virginia, in 2011, was capable of persuade roughly 270 colleagues to repeat 100 revealed psychological research to see if they might get the identical experiment-results a second time round. Lower than 40% of the research that initially reported statistically vital outcomes did so within the tried replications.
“The ‘exhausting’ sciences are usually not immune from this downside. In 2011, Bayer, the German pharmaceutical firm, discovered that it may totally replicate solely 21% of the research that had impressed it to launch its personal analysis; quickly after, Amgen, the biotech firm, discovered that it may replicate solely 11%. Some biotech start-ups are so cautious of preliminary discoveries that don’t maintain up that they demand ‘reproducibility certificates’ (equipped by impartial labs) earlier than investing in initiatives.”
The article continues to debate that scientific literature is deeply tainted and the efforts to enhance it embrace implementing what the ebook creator calls “the ethos of transparency.”