Pathway 2045—Edison’s Roadmap to Power Hell (1)

Visitor put up by Rud Istvan,

California WUWT reader Cal B alerted Charles the Moderator to a brand new doc simply revealed by Edison Worldwide, the holding firm mother or father for SoCal Edison, the biggest electrical utility for southern California. Cal B requested if WUWT posters would possibly prefer to take it on? In his standard charming style, CtM bought me (after some preliminary reluctance) to volunteer immediately over a lunch overlooking South Florida’s Intercoastal Waterway. The important thing was his smart answer to my ‘too massive a topic’ objection—break it into components! So that is the primary of six components.

My causes for agreeing have been a number of.

First, a lot of the technical problem points buried in Pathway 2045 I beforehand lined, albeit at posts over at Judith Curry’s Local weather And many others and/or in my e book Blowing Smoke. So there was not an entire lot of recent analysis required.

Second, it’s beautiful that an electrical utility may foist such technical and financial nonsense onto its California prospects. One presumes it was pressured by coming California necessities imposed by Newsom worse than the loopy 2030 necessities to which SoCalEd already crazily responded in 2017.

Third, as WUWT matures and modifications from simply the local weather science to the local weather politics, it’s attracting new readers that is probably not acquainted with long gone technical analyses. This is a chance to “bundle’” the large ‘Inexperienced New Deal’ vitality reality image collectively once more.

This primary half offers a ‘30000 foot’ overview of the entire thing. Pathway 2045 to Zero Web Carbon California contains 5 separate ‘answer’ components:

1. Decarbonize electrical energy
2. Electrify transportation
three. Electrify buildings
four. Use low carbon fuels
5. Sink remaining carbon

Decarbonizing electrical energy both means renewables or nuclear. SoCalEd does NOT suggest nuclear. They suggest renewables. That raises ‘solely’ three small issues. Renewables aren’t economically viable with out large subsidies. Renewables are intermittent, requiring further backup capability for when the wind doesn’t blow or the solar doesn’t shine. Renewables present no grid inertia. Renewables are due to this fact a confirmed an financial catastrophe, as California’s excessive electrical energy charges already show. However SoCalEd doesn’t care—their revenues will rise bigly and their regulated utility returns are ‘charge assured’.

Electrifying transportation (Tesla) additionally runs into three issues. First, the required grid capability increment is gigantic. Second, autos like work pickups or class eight tractors can’t be electrified, regardless of Tesla’s imaginary guarantees on the contrary—all battery, no cargo capability. Third, there are critical lithium and cobalt useful resource constraints.

Electrifying buildings past what exists immediately (some HVAC, lighting) has two issues. Present buildings or their subsystems would primarily need to be torn down/out and changed, however NOT at SoCalEd value. Perhaps house owners will balk at their costly wishful considering. Second, locations but extra want for Capex to develop grid capability past car electrification, since most business buildings do NOT have sufficient floor publicity for self sustained photo voltaic or wind.

Utilizing low carbon fuels ought to imply nuclear. SoCalEd means greater than pure gasoline fired CCGT rather than coal, a transition already taking place for financial causes. They imply biofuels and hydrogen (e.g. gas cells), for which they’ve apparently studied neither the carbon chemistry nor the vitality thermodynamics.

Sinking remaining carbon means both forestry or ocean iron fertilization (geoengineering). SoCalEd’s northern California electrical utility accomplice PGE has gone out of business for inflicting forest fires that destroyed carbon sinks. And the fires round LA this fall counsel SoCalEd isn’t significantly better at preserving them. Half 6 will focus on whether or not the plan may be for SoCalEd ratepayers to pay further for carbon credit to wherever to plant bushes or fertilize barren oceans.

In sum, that is SoCalEd’s model of the Inexperienced New Deal. Pigs can’t fly regardless of how a lot lipstick is placed on them. The inventory is a powerful brief. California is a powerful brief. There are three local weather response crash check dummies on this planet immediately: Australia, UK, and California. This new place paper by the biggest California electrical utility leapfrogs California into first crash dummy place.

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